An experimental Azheimer's drug from Biogen Idec dramatically slowed the disease's progression in a small study — a stunning finding that analysts and doctors say could save millions of lives and lead to a financial boon for the Cambridge biotech firm.
"The results are incredibly promising," said Ravi Mehrotra, head of Global Biotechnology Research at Credit Suisse in New York. "What's very interesting with Alzheimer's is it's obviously a huge market, and because of the aging population, that number is going to continue to grow."
The 166-person study showed a significant decrease in both cognitive decline and amyloid plaque — the sticky substance that builds up in the brains of Alzheimer's patients — in those who took the drug aducanumab rather than a placebo.
Biogen's stock soared after the findings were announced yesterday, spiking briefly to a record high of $480.18 per share, before closing up 9.76 percent.
If the drug's success holds up in later trial phases, Biogen has the potential to produce a $10 billion worldwide drug, and see as much as a 50 percent increase in revenue, said Michael Yee a San Francisco-based analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
"The big picture is that these results are very exciting," said Yee. "Obviously that's tremendous because it could be transformative for the company."
Biogen Idec said the initial results were so promising that it will skip Phase II and go directly to Phase III of the trial, which will involve a participant pool of at least 1,000 people.
This is "relatively rare" in the research world, according to Dr. Tinatin Chabrashvili, neurologist and director of the Dementia Clinic at Tufts Medical Center.
"Something like this only happens when there are quite convincing results," Chabrashvili said. "The results look very good."
There are more than 5 million Americans with Alzheimer's disease, and that number could triple by 2050 without medical innovations, according to Jim Wessler, president and CEO of Alzheimer's Association Massachusetts New Hampshire chapter.
It's the only disease on the list of the top 10 causes of death in the United States that does not have a treatment that slows or stops progression, he said.
"Alzheimer's is the most expensive disease in America, more than heart disease and cancer, because you have both medical care and care-giving requirements," he said. "People on average after diagnosis will live for eight years and the range can be up to 20 years. It's a long, slow, deteriorating disease."
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